This past week has been stressful, not just for me but for millions of people who live in Florida.  Hurricane season is always that way.  Constantly monitoring weather reports and wondering if it’s time to board of the house again.  Living in Florida is wonderful though.  One cannot find a more wonderful place.

For some time I have planned another trip to Scotland and I am scheduled to fly out next week.  So, Scotland is on my mind.  Cool weather and magnificient scenery.  Another chance to find the light that dances in the early morning hours, and too as the last rays of light fall upon a Loch.

Our lives should be about finding joy and sharing it with others.  Photography has done that for me, a creative outlet that others seem to enjoy.  Once in a while I get a wonderful message from someone who remembers a special place that I have been to and photographed.  For them, the photograph often brings back good memories.  It gives me great joy to know that I have done that for them.  It makes all my travels worthwhile.

As I look at photographs of places I have been, it reminds me too of the incredible beauty that lies before us and spurns me to keep looking for that special light that warms the soul.

If I had plotted the course of Tropical Storm Fay to protect myself and my property, I could not have done a better job than what occurred.

Here, in the Tampa Bay region, Fay has missed us completely.  We have a gentle wind, sunshine, and actually a superb day.  In fact, it is cool and wonderful to be outside.

Just goes to show you, sometimes worrying about stuff is the worst part.

My heart does go out to those on the East coast of Florida who are getting slammed.  I hope they are safe from the affects of the storm.

Just went to the NHC and grabbed this latest projection for the movement of Fay.  Still interesting that the storm may turn left back into Florida after exiting into the Atlantic.

Here at 0300 hours 19 August all is quiet.  A gentle breeze from the North can be felt, but little in the way of sounds, no aircraft flying, just the gentle sounds of the night.

The National Hurricane Center says that Fay will land near Naples shortly and then move into the interior of Florida.  Thank goodness the storm did not grow in intensity.

Here is a radar image grabbed at 0300 hours this morning.

A band of showers fell on my house about an hour ago.  Now things are calm, but soon major bands of rain will fall.  The wait is over.

The last projection I have shows that Hurricane Fay will make landfall sometime early tomorrow morning well to the south of where I live, then move East of my location.

Thank goodness the storm is minimal.

And a shot from Google Earth shows again just how large the storm is.  It’s huge for sure.

And, the National Hurricane Center’s website is back online.  That is good.  Information is key to saving lives.  And thanks too to the people there who go about their work seriously.  Gosh we need to give them more funding.  Course, that is beyond the power of the people, we leave such stuff to Congress.  And there, pork barrell spending is what occurs more often than not.

I guess it is stupid to believe that Congress could ever invest in research, innovation, and long-range development of new technologies.  Nope.  That is not what Congress is about.  It is about getting votes.  Nothing else.  Gosh, it’s time Americans changed that.  Maybe we should just throw lots of them out of office, course, we will get another crop all the same.  What happened to caring about this country? What happened to public service?  What happened to the American Dream?

Excuse me, I know, it ended with Harry Truman.

I am up very early this morning checking the forecasts for what is soon to be Hurricane Fay.

The projections are not to my liking, as of 2300 hours 17 August, the National Hurricane Center is projecting the storm will pass directly over my house sometime in the early evening of 19 August.

But, the forecaster says that the NHC has little confidence in the projection due to the data.  Instead, NHC says to be more concerned about the potential winds, which for me mean somewhere around 80MPH assuming that Fay is a Category 1 storm.

The computer models are all over the place.  Very little agreement here.

But, one must rely on what the forecasters have considered versus the projections of a computer model.  In sum, things don’t look good for Tampa Bay.

And in Tampa Bay, the concern is not just for high winds, but storm surge.  And the amount of the storm surge will vary enormously with the intensity of the storm.  Projections suggest from five to eight feet of surge, depending on where in the Bay a measurement is taken.  But that is for a Category 1 storm, what if Fay develops into a Category 2 or 3 storm?  Then stuff gets really serious as the potential of major flooding jumps significantly higher.

And, unfortunately for me, my mind says that Fay will likely be a Category 2 storm when it arrives in my area, my reasoning is that the waters of the Gulf of Mexico are very warm presently.  If the storm slows or stops in its progress north, more than likely we will see its intensity grow rapidly. But, of course, I am not a hurricane expert, just an ordinary guy that has lived in Florida all of his life.

One thing is for certain, projections almost always are wrong until the last few hours before landfall.  So, today will be devoted to last minute preparations, most things are done.  And, then, late in the day decide if I will ride out the storm in my home or boogie inland.

Post Script.

It’s now 0500 hours, 18 August.  New projections from the National Hurricane Center show that Fay will make landfall south of Tampa Bay.

It is worth noting that the forecasters, whom I greatly respect, are having a tough time figuring out where Fay is going.  Another reason that our government should be investing more in equipment, software, computer arrays, and people whose knowledge and experience can help save lives.  We don’t expend enough public dollars on such things.  The cost of one Air Force Jet Fighter ($350 million per plane) would be enough to seriously boost the NHC’s ability to improve forecasts.  But, given the way our Congress thinks, a bridge to nowhere in Alaska is more important.

So, the latest advisory is mixed.

Storm surge still concerns me for lots of reasons.  First, one should not just consider how high the water will get, but what’s in it.  With high winds about, such things are boats, parts of houses, trees, and gosh knows what else will wind up in the water.  A good sized boat, for example, pushed by 70MPH winds can do some serious harm to a house along the coast.  Mix all that stuff up into soup and you get the idea.

At any rate, it is good to be documenting the ongoing projections.  It will help me remember my thoughts along the way. And, to write a letter to my Congressman, although it will do little good.

1100 Hours 18 August

Just tried to go to the National Hurricane Center website.  It won’t load.  I know what the problem is, the server is simply overloaded with citizens checking on the storm.  Imagine that, perhaps the most important website to tens of thousands of us who want to know what is happening and the NHC is so underfunded it can’t put a website that we can get to. Answer is more servers and faster connections to the net.  This time my letter to my Congressman is gonna be nasty!  Simply inconceivable.

But, you know what, I can get to my congressman’s website.  How interesting that is.

And Google Earth is working fine at home, at least I can see what the storm looks like, here snapped at 1142 hours 18 August.  My gosh this storm is huge!

And this screen capture shows clearly that paying attention just to the eye of the storm is senseless, one must consider that the affects of the storm are enormous and that virtually the whole State of Florida will experience it’s fury.

After looking at the intensity levels and the forecasts, I have decided to ride out the storm at home.  Will likely lose power in the next 24 hours or so, and therefore will not be able to update my blog.  I may try to blog from my cellphone, but the problem I have is that cellular signals where I live are sporatic.

As I sit here waiting for the NHC’s 2:00 PM update on Tropical Storm Fay, I’m looking at Google Earth’s integration of all kinds of stuff.  And I am amazed.

To think, my parents never saw anything like this image while they lived.  And here I sit, able to examine the entire Earth with complete ease.  And see things I never dreamed possible to see.

I think it will be cool to take snapshots as Fay develops.  At least I can look back and remember my thoughts as the storm unfolds.

And my thoughts right now are that my part of the world has a mess of weather to worry about.  Yep, a mess for sure.

As I await the 0500 advisory from the National Hurricane Center, my thoughts go out to the thousands of people who live in my area of Florida.  A great many of my fellow citizens do not have the means to evacuate the area.  They simply don’t have money or resources.

One statistic from the Pinellas County Emergency Management Office that is very troubling is this: “Pinellas County is extremely vulnerable to surge flooding because of its coastal and low-lying geography. In fact, a Category 3 storm could flood 42 percent of the county’s households.”

In other words, nearly half of the residents of my county could have their homes flooded if a category 3 storm hits the Tampa Bay area! That is staggering in terms of how it will impact the lives of my fellow citizens.

On top of that is the fact that there are not enough public hurricane shelters available in my area to house all those people who may need one.  Add to that the fact that if people wait until the last minute to leave the area, the roads simply cannot support the exodus which is required.  And for those who can leave, there is a great danger from becoming stranded on an Interstate highway during the worst part of the storm.

In other words, the scenario is not a good one.

The key is to decide early and decide in favor of personal safety.

I remember the 1950s and 1960s when I was a boy. In those days hurricane forecasting lacked the sophisticated satellite imagery we have today.  Then, it was anyone’s guess about where a storm was likely to go.  Since that time, hurricane forecasting has become more and more reliable and all of us should be grateful for what has evolved at the National Hurricane Center and NOAA.  Hopefully, more public funding will be made available for storm prediction.  In particular, the development of better forecasting software and computer arrays to crunch the information.

Long-range planning for hurricanes is necessary as well.  While many communities have developed plans for hurricane shelters and post-hurricane support, the fact is that there are not enough public shelters available in most cities and counties affected by hurricanes.  It seems an American thing, we don’t seem to be able to plan ahead, rather we react after an event occurs.  And, then the angst rages, but soon dies as public officials turn their thoughts to other matters.

So, now I turn my thoughts to planning for the next 24 hours.  But given the following computer models, one is confused about where one should go.  The tracks are all over the place and the 0500 advisory from the NHC suggests that Fay may not be a hurricane when it makes landfall, maybe.

I like how the NHC is real positive about what is going to happen. The data suggest that it will not be a hurricane at landfall, but the forecaster says it will, well sorta; after all, this prediction stuff is an art, not a science, yet:

IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF...THESE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS CONDUCIVE
FOR STRENGTHENING...BUT MOST OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE HAS FAY NEAR
OR JUST ABOVE HURRICANE STRENGTH NEAR THE TIME OF LANDFALL.  FAY IS
EXPECTED TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF...EVEN THOUGH THE TIMING OF THE FORECAST POINTS BELOW DO NOT
EXPLICITLY SHOW IT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      17/0900Z 19.7N  77.3W    45 KT
 12HR VT     17/1800Z 20.7N  78.9W    50 KT
 24HR VT     18/0600Z 22.2N  80.6W    55 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     18/1800Z 23.7N  81.6W    50 KT
 48HR VT     19/0600Z 25.4N  82.1W    60 KT
 72HR VT     20/0600Z 29.0N  82.5W    50 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     21/0600Z 32.0N  82.5W    35 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     22/0600Z 35.5N  82.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW"

Well, being the informed guy I am, I just went out to the National Hurricane Center official website and took at look at what my government is providing me in the way of information.  I like good information.

And, well, it’s not a bad site.  Course, I am still wondering why the NHC prints all its advisories in upper case letters.  I think that has to do with teletype.  They broadcast their stuff to ships all over the world.  No doubt a fall back to old technology.  But it is interesting to think about.  For example, take a look at the header:

000
WTNT31 KNHC 161743
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2008

I wonder what those first three 000s mean?

Then there are the next two lines:

WTNT31 KNHC 161743
TCPAT1

Hum. I don’t have a clue what they mean, so why are they there? Must mean something to somebody somewhere. It is a filing system? You know, a way to archive what they said? Course, I have no idea. I just want a plain English report. Maybe even in upper and lower case. After all it is a website. Course, it easier to just use what was sent out. Less work on the forecasters.

But let us read on.

Actually it’s not bad. Lots of very specific information.

But I tend to like graphics. You know, pictures of what is going to happen. Are they on the site?

Yep, and very well done.

Like this one.

Course, I’m not happy about this graphic, it suggests the storm is gonna pass right over my house!  Talk about information I don’t want to see.  Ugh.

But, at least the folks at the National Hurricane Center are keeping me informed.  And, I hate it when their stuff tells me that the future does not look good.

Course, about now, I am wondering just how well the folks FEMA are doing?  No doubt out buying some more trailers with lots of chemicals that harm kids, and wasting a ton of dollars on stuff we won’t need, and no doubt deep into finding ways not to supply stuff we need in advance to my Florida government, and most likely telling George W. that all is well.

There website is very informative.  Look at this “It’s not my problem statement.”

“FEMA acquired travel trailer, mobile homes and park models from a variety of retail and commercial sources in good faith and fully expected all units to comply with all relevant industry standards, best practices and regulations.  FEMA neither knowingly, nor willingly, purchased manufactured units from dealerships and manufacturers that contained levels of formaldehyde above existing construction standards, nor did FEMA’s specifications encourage non-compliance with such standards. We have been fully transparent in our actions on this issue.”

What the heck does “We have been fully transparent in our actions on this issue.” mean?  Transparent? Who was the idiot who wrote that sentence?

And, too, I’m just wondering about all the great insurance companies in the USA.  I am more than positive that they are gearing up for the storm, most likely somewhere in Europe at a conference.  If lucky, most residents in Florida will be able to get through to them sometime in 2012. Which reminds me, I must save my receipts, in a water-proof zip lock bag.  Yep, I may need them down the road.

I live in Florida.  Which means that one is always aware of the potential for a hurricane.

And just now, 1100 hours 16 August 2008, I looked at this projected path for Tropcial Storm Fay, soon to be Hurricane Fay.  The “X” is where I live!

Rut Row! Somewhere around 8 PM on Tuesday next the eye of the storm will pass over my house.

Fortunately this is projected to be a category 1 hurricane, but my instinct tells me that it will be a category 2 by the time it gets to me, because the Gulf of Mexico is really warm right now, some would say the water is hot.  Storms always build quickly when they enter the gulf.  That has been my experience.

Of major concern to me and the folks who live in the Tampa Bay area is not just the winds from the storm but the storm surge.  Tampa Bay is shallow and the eyewall of the storm will lift the waters of the bay.  Maybe as much as eight feet!  That spells disaster for thousands of homes and businesses along the bay.

My house is 14 feet above sea level, so I will be praying that the surge won’t get to me, but I could be wrong.

In the meantime, what am I doing to prepare for the storm?

1.  Fortunately I have already installed windows and doors that are rated to withstand 130MPH winds.  I did that some time ago.  I was particularly concerned about my garage doors, usually the first area of a house that implodes. So, I bought two very good doors, both rated to withstand the same 130MPH winds.

2. Today I filled up my Van’s gas tank and bought eight gallons more for my generator.  We always lose power during even a mild storm.  Not having a refrigerator is an issue, along with air conditioning, it gets really hot in Florida.  My guess is that we will be without power for up to five days or more.  No way to know. But I do have the generator.  That will help.

3. During the next two days I will be moving outdoor furniture, flower pots, and other items inside my garage.  One does not want a flower pot thrown through one’s windows, or my neighbors’ windows either.

4. I already have a large roll of plastic, which I can use to cover areas of my roof that may come undone during the storm.  That stays in my garage and is there if I need it.  Along with nails.

5. I have two chain saws.  Sometimes these are absolutely necessary as was the case a few years back when a large tree came down between my house and my neighbor’s house.  It took us five hours to cut the tree into small pieces and get out off the side of my house.

6. I stocked up on canned goods and water today as well, along with my LP gas tank.  Might have to use a grill to cook something.  Not likely to have the use of my stove.

7. Got some cash from the bank today as well.  Credit cards are useless when there is no power.  So even if stores are open, not likely that one can buy anything without cash.

8. Will backup my computer today, making sure I have extra copies of key documents.  And, as the storm approaches, will carefully monitor when I need to unplug my computers from power sources.  But, of course, that will be last minute stuff, since I will be monitoring the storm closely through the Internet.

9. Will get out my Glock 10mm and make sure it is working properly.  Seems that others have suffered from looters following a storm.  It can be a dangerous time.  Being armed is a good idea.  I’m well armed.

10. Have lots of batteries and a weather radio, gotta find that radio though.  Currently charging my cell phone as I will not likely have telephone service once the storm approaches.

11. Will check to see if my son needs any help at his house.  He has plenty of plywood to put up, but fortunately he has planned well too with pre-drilled anchors ready to mount the plywood to.

12. Will check with my neighbors to see if they plan on staying at home during the storm or whether they plan to leave and to offer as well help in preparing for the storm.

There are at least 46 other things I will think of in the next few hours that need doing.  But, at least I’m preparing and thinking well in advance of the storm.

Will post more about this as time goes by.  Might even get some photos worth sharing.