As I await the 0500 advisory from the National Hurricane Center, my thoughts go out to the thousands of people who live in my area of Florida.  A great many of my fellow citizens do not have the means to evacuate the area.  They simply don’t have money or resources.

One statistic from the Pinellas County Emergency Management Office that is very troubling is this: “Pinellas County is extremely vulnerable to surge flooding because of its coastal and low-lying geography. In fact, a Category 3 storm could flood 42 percent of the county’s households.”

In other words, nearly half of the residents of my county could have their homes flooded if a category 3 storm hits the Tampa Bay area! That is staggering in terms of how it will impact the lives of my fellow citizens.

On top of that is the fact that there are not enough public hurricane shelters available in my area to house all those people who may need one.  Add to that the fact that if people wait until the last minute to leave the area, the roads simply cannot support the exodus which is required.  And for those who can leave, there is a great danger from becoming stranded on an Interstate highway during the worst part of the storm.

In other words, the scenario is not a good one.

The key is to decide early and decide in favor of personal safety.

I remember the 1950s and 1960s when I was a boy. In those days hurricane forecasting lacked the sophisticated satellite imagery we have today.  Then, it was anyone’s guess about where a storm was likely to go.  Since that time, hurricane forecasting has become more and more reliable and all of us should be grateful for what has evolved at the National Hurricane Center and NOAA.  Hopefully, more public funding will be made available for storm prediction.  In particular, the development of better forecasting software and computer arrays to crunch the information.

Long-range planning for hurricanes is necessary as well.  While many communities have developed plans for hurricane shelters and post-hurricane support, the fact is that there are not enough public shelters available in most cities and counties affected by hurricanes.  It seems an American thing, we don’t seem to be able to plan ahead, rather we react after an event occurs.  And, then the angst rages, but soon dies as public officials turn their thoughts to other matters.

So, now I turn my thoughts to planning for the next 24 hours.  But given the following computer models, one is confused about where one should go.  The tracks are all over the place and the 0500 advisory from the NHC suggests that Fay may not be a hurricane when it makes landfall, maybe.

I like how the NHC is real positive about what is going to happen. The data suggest that it will not be a hurricane at landfall, but the forecaster says it will, well sorta; after all, this prediction stuff is an art, not a science, yet:

IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF...THESE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS CONDUCIVE
FOR STRENGTHENING...BUT MOST OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE HAS FAY NEAR
OR JUST ABOVE HURRICANE STRENGTH NEAR THE TIME OF LANDFALL.  FAY IS
EXPECTED TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF...EVEN THOUGH THE TIMING OF THE FORECAST POINTS BELOW DO NOT
EXPLICITLY SHOW IT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      17/0900Z 19.7N  77.3W    45 KT
 12HR VT     17/1800Z 20.7N  78.9W    50 KT
 24HR VT     18/0600Z 22.2N  80.6W    55 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     18/1800Z 23.7N  81.6W    50 KT
 48HR VT     19/0600Z 25.4N  82.1W    60 KT
 72HR VT     20/0600Z 29.0N  82.5W    50 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     21/0600Z 32.0N  82.5W    35 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     22/0600Z 35.5N  82.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW"